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Sinner vs. Medvedev remaining preview: Two forces collide for Indian Wells glory
Sinner seeks first title of 2026 whereas Medvedev continues reemergence
March 15, 2026
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Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will meet for the Indian Wells trophy on Sunday.
By ATP Workers
Coming into Saturday’s motion on the BNP Paribas Open, Carlos Alcaraz appeared the favorite on the season’s first ATP Masters 1000 occasion. Already a two-time champion on the event, the Spaniard was in imperious type, having received his first 16 matches of the season.
However after Daniil Medvedev surprised the World No. 1 on Saturday, it is going to be Medvedev and World No. 2 Jannik Sinner who conflict Sunday for the trophy. Which star will go away the California desert with a vital triumph?
It’s a second of alternative for each males. Medvedev is assured to return to the High 10 within the PIF ATP Rankings on Monday for the primary time since July final yr. However extra importantly, he’s second within the PIF ATP Dwell Race To Turin, the season-to-date standings.
Turning into the primary participant to defeat Alcaraz and Sinner in the identical event since Novak Djokovic on the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals could be a transparent assertion that former World No. 1 Medvedev is again at his greatest. However there will likely be a major hurdle standing in his approach throughout the online: Sinner.
With Alcaraz’s dominance of late, it’s simple to neglect that Sinner received his remaining three tournaments of 2025 — Vienna, Paris and the Nitto ATP Finals — and misplaced only one set in 15 matches at these occasions.
That the Italian shedding a five-set semi-final at this yr’s Australian Open to Djokovic was a disappointment speaks to the extremely excessive commonplace he has set in recent times. However Sinner has made his first Indian Wells remaining with out dropping a set and after beating Alexander Zverev within the semi-finals he’ll attempt to declare his first title of the season.
“It means loads to me,” stated Sinner, who has received the opposite 5 hard-court Masters 1000 tournaments. “Third time that I play in [the] semi-finals, so I am very joyful to be for the primary time within the remaining. Now we [will] see what’s coming tomorrow.”
Alcaraz owns a cushty 2,550-point benefit over Sinner within the PIF ATP Dwell Rankings. However a win towards Medvedev could possibly be the beginning of the Italian reigniting his chase for World No. 1.
The Lexus ATP Head2Head rivalry between Sinner and Medvedev has adopted a winding street by means of 15 matches. Medvedev claimed their first six conferences earlier than Sinner received eight of their subsequent 9 to steer 8-7. Sunday’s showdown would be the first time they’ve performed because the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals.
Sinner received by a routine 6-3, 6-4 margin that day en path to his maiden trophy in Turin, whereas Medvedev did not advance by means of round-robin play and missed the Nitto ATP Finals in 2025, breaking a six-year streak.
However Medvedev will not be taking part in the identical tennis he did when he fell to World No. 18 simply six months in the past. In profitable titles in Brisbane and Dubai this yr earlier than elevating his recreation to even larger heights at Indian Wells, Medvedev has blended his sometimes vexing baseline recreation with early aggression to forestall opponents from discovering their consolation zone.
“It all the time must be a stability, as a result of I did strive a bit in my profession at one level to be, let’s name it overaggressive, and it was not good,” Medvedev stated. “Proper now, I am in confidence and once I’m in confidence, I all the time stated I really feel like I am an aggressive participant, particularly on my serve.”
Sinner is without doubt one of the most aggressive gamers on the ATP Tour and in recent times he has managed to take the initiative and blast by means of Medvedev’s defence. However the 24-year-old is effectively conscious of the hazard his fellow ATP No. 1 Membership member poses.
“He is again to a really, very excessive stage. Very huge serve, I really feel like. He is returning very effectively. Very, very deep,” Sinner stated. “Everyone seems to be making an attempt to be barely extra aggressive… Sascha immediately tried to be extra aggressive. He did not play his greatest tennis immediately, I really feel like, however everyone seems to be making an attempt to push.
“And I believe Daniil has discovered once more a very good, good stability on court docket, profitable a title in Dubai, coming right here, making once more nice outcomes.”
Together with his victory towards Alcaraz, Medvedev is now 8-8 towards World No. 1s in his profession in response to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index. And vitally, the six-time Masters 1000 titlist is feeling good about his recreation main into his conflict towards Sinner, a five-time Masters 1000 winner.
“Perhaps I play 10 matches towards Carlos, in all probability I’ll lose greater than I’ll win,” Medvedev stated. “However at any time when I am going on court docket, I must consider in myself, I must do my greatest, and attempt to win as a lot as I can.”
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